Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
